That Was Quick: Obama Lead at 16% Nationally

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The pattern above is clear. Wonder if it's connected to this photo below?

Obama Rally in Portland, OR
Originally uploaded by Tom Turnbull

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll: Obama up by 11 over Clinton

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On May 18, 2008, Gallup's daily tracking poll showed Obama's nationwide lead over Hillary Clinton widening.

Clinton and the Superdelegates - "There's a pattern emerging here."

New York Times

In today's New York Times, there is an annotated graph entitled "How Clinton Lost the Lead in Superdelegates" that mirrors the pattern of Hillary Clinton's primary run. She begins with a huge lead and all the advantages - in name recognition, in party connections and in money - but over time, she gets overtaken by that skinny kid with the funny name.

It is possible for reasonable people to disagree about the reasons but the trend is indisputable. As Hillary said in an interview with USA Today in a different context -

“There’s a pattern emerging here.”

Another Clinton Pattern

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I saw this graph over at MyDD but they rightly credit 2008 Democratic Convention Watch.

As in the pattern discussed below, Clinton's pledged super delegate lead on February 10, 2008 stood at 97. But on April 20, 2008 that lead stood at 25. A decline of 74% in a little over 2 months time.

Primary Patterns: Clinton vs. Obama

Gallup

Remember the joke about the person who makes a small fortune? The humor comes when you learn they started with a large fortune. This is the Hillary pattern against Barrack Obama. She starts the primary season with an overwhelming advantage in name recognition, fund raising and long time connections in the Democratic party. Consequently, her lead in the polls appears to be insurmountable - especially for a Junior Senator for Illinois. In the contested states that she wins, she is able to turn those large leads into much smaller leads which include 15 of the 29 states with contested primaries to date. However, a deeply flawed campaign strategy or execution of that strategy yields only a single win in 14 caucus states. Overall record: 16 wins in 43 contests. Pennsylvania is just more of the same. Hillary starts with a 20-25+ point lead and finishes with a 9+ lead.

So Hillary can sometimes turn a large lead into a small lead and can more often turn a large lead into a loss. In business terms, she reminds me of the Industry leader that loses out to the new, under-capitalized upstart with fresh ideas.

Currently, against McCain, both Hillary and Barack are losing in the Polls by three percent. The pattern to date shows that Obama can overcome an opponent's early lead. On the other hand, the pattern for Hillary is that she more often than not loses, even when she had the early lead.

Obama and Pattern Recognition

Pollster.com

Over at TPM, Eric Kleefeld reports on the Gallup Poll released just today.

The new Gallup poll shows the national Democratic race might be really tightening — Hillary's lead is down to the single digits. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from two days ago:

Clinton 42% (-2)
Obama 36% (+3)
Edwards 12% (-2)

Only a week ago, Hillary was up by 16 points.

We'll find out soon enough what the impact of Edwards' withdrawal will be, and also where the remaining undecideds will end up.

So the pattern is clear. But is there enough time in our "front-loaded" primary free for all?

Pattern Recognition

Policies have consequences – both intended and unintended. Either way, patterns can be discerned.

More than 75 years ago, Justice Louis Brandeis wrote these words: "Our government is the potent, the omnipresent teacher. For good or ill, it teaches the whole people by its example. Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for the law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself."

The pattern of the Bush Administration includes contempt for International Law. Around the world we are experienced as a bully. The administration boasts that the UN is irrelevant and that the concerns of “old Europe” do not matter. We do not need the advice, counsel or approval of our allies or the International community. Rather, in the Rumsfeld/Cheney universe, “might makes right” and we are accountable to none.

Organizations take on the character and personality of the people at the top – or more graphically, “the fish rots from the head.” Leaders who endorse preemptive war and claim exemption from the Geneva Convention set an example for behavior all the way down the line.

George W. Bush told the Arab world Tuesday that the abuse of Iraqi prisoners "does not represent the America I know.” The Arab world remains unconvinced. Instead, they see evidence of a darker America, of the powerful exploiting the powerless. Perhaps a government that places itself above the law cannot successfully inspire freedom and democracy elsewhere. Certainly young soldiers in Iraq who break International laws and act like bullies are following the example of their current leaders.

Our country is on the wrong track and we need to change direction.