Deconstructing Pombo's Loss

Today's San Francisco Chronicle reports on an interview with Richard Pombo in which he discusses his recent upset loss:

Sitting at the long conference table in his committee office, Pombo dissected the numbers from election day. In 2004, he beat McNerney by 22 percentage points by winning 96,000 votes in San Joaquin County, which makes up the bulk of his 11th Congressional District and has been his political base. But two years later, he got less than half that total, just 45,000 votes.

He said the figures show how his opponents -- with a barrage of anti-Pombo mailers, billboards and TV and radio ads -- persuaded his voters to stay home.

"They couldn't win with the Democrats. They had to suppress the Republican vote," he said. "The last couple weeks what they were doing was walking, calling and mailing Republicans with a heavy, 'He's corrupt, it's time to get him out' thing to try to drive down the vote of Republicans. And it worked."

But it seems to me there is more to this story. It is true that in 2004, according to the California Secretary of State 66,865 more votes were cast in CA District 11 than in 2006. And it is true that Pombo got less than half his total from 2004 in 2006 in San Joaquin County.

But there are also some spectacular differences. In 2004 Richard Pombo outspent Jerry McNerney on the order of 6.5 to 1. According to Open Secrets, Pombo raised $1,100,380 in the 2004 election cycle and spent $1,017,709. On the otherhand, McNerney raised $156,886 and spent $154,701. But in 2006, as of October 16,2006, again according to Open Secrets, Pombo had raised $3,764,773 and spent $2,818,013 while McNerney raised $1,584,258 and spent $1,256,837. So McNerney had raised more than 10 times what he raised in 2004 but Pombo was still outspending him by more than two to one.

To round out the money picture, we still need to add the final tallies for the NRCC in the anti-McNerney campaign and the DNCC plus environmental groups in their anti-Pombo campaign. Nevertheless, I would expect that when all the money is counted, Pombo will have a considerable advantage. And, of course, both sides engaged in lots of negative campaigning.

In 2004, Pombo took every single county within District 11 - in 2006, only one. In the end, the most important reason for Pombo's defeat may have been grass roots support and Get Out The Vote efforts for McNerney. In a year where the total number of votes was down by one third, Jerry McNerney was up by 2.8% but Richard Pombo was down by a whopping 42.6%. Were there any comparable results in other 2006 Districts?

Apparantly the advantages of incumbancy and money were not enough this year. Pombo's support crumbled and Pombo apparently has come to believe that voters did not so much object to his record in congress as to the portrayal of that record by environmental groups. More likely, the failure was with Pombo's own record of extremism on environmental issues and his self-inflicted corruption related wounds (family on his PAC payroll, Indian gaming interest contributions and Mariana Islands sweatshop shenanigans). And finally, his own GOTV effort obviously did not match the success on behalf of McNerney.

Congressman Jerry McNerney!

One last Jerry McNerney post from the AP via the San Jose Mercury News:

It's 'Mr. Smith Goes to Washington' for Calif Democrat McNerney
ERICA WERNER
Associated Press

DUBLIN, Calif. - The "Jerry McNerney for Congress" sign outside his campaign headquarters has been crossed out. Somebody's scrawled in red: "U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney!"

The exclamation point of amazement says it all.

On Tuesday, McNerney, a little-known Democrat with a math Ph.D. but no experience in elected office, shoved out one of California's most powerful Republican incumbents even though nobody thought he could.

Seven-term lawmaker Richard Pombo, chairman of the House Resources Committee that writes environmental laws, will go back to his Tracy cattle ranch come January. McNerney will go to Congress.

"It became a mountain, a tidal wave," a sleep-deprived but happy McNerney said Thursday of the grass-roots support, helped along by high-spending environmental groups, that swept him into office.

"I have a challenge to show them that I'm there for them," he said. "I'm ready for the challenge."

McNerney will represent California's 11th Congressional District that takes in portions of the San Joaquin Valley and the eastern San Francisco Bay area. The district is gaining Democratic voters as bay area commuters move in, but Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 5.6 percent among registered voters.

Those GOP-friendly numbers are forcing McNerney to think ahead even as he fielded back-to-back congratulatory calls Thursday from fellow California Democrats and well-wishers around the country.

"It's going to be a contested race in 2008, we certainly recognize that," McNerney, 55, said in an interview at his campaign headquarters, in a nondescript office building above an electrical workers' union.

After working for years as a wind-energy engineer and consultant, his hope is to earn constituents' support by pushing in Washington for alternative-energy projects that will bring jobs to his district.

"The new energy economy - I want it to be centered right here," he said.

The walls of McNerney's campaign office were plastered with cutouts of multicolored cowboy boots, to symbolize kicking out Pombo, who's known for his cowboy boots.

There was also a photo of McNerney with Bill Clinton, who drew a huge crowd at a rain-soaked late-night rally in the campaign's final days.

When they met, McNerney said, Clinton pinned him with his intense gaze and declared: "You're going to win this."

"I was kind of numb," McNerney said.

He ended up beating Pombo 53 percent to 47 percent. Two years ago McNerney lost to Pombo, 39 percent to 61 percent.

McNerney didn't have the support of national Democrats in his party's primary. They backed retired Navy reservist Steve Filson, who had the hawkish profile the party was looking for. McNerney opposes the Iraq war and supports setting a timetable to get troops out.

But McNerney had a strong grass-roots operation dating from 2004 when he ran as a write-in candidate in the Democratic primary. It carried him to easy victory over Filson, boosted him over Pombo and, he hopes, will help him keep his seat in campaigns to come.

McNerney, who is married with three adult children, has worked as an engineer and consultant at Sandia National Laboratory and private companies including US Windpower/Kenetech. Several years ago he launched his own company to market a new wind turbine design, but had trouble attracting investors and abandoned it to run for Congress.

He's also written unpublished novels and a diet satire book. In recent years he has lived off a home equity loan and a small family trust.

Pombo tried to use McNerney's unconventional background to cast him as unreliable and flakey, but to some supporters it's an asset.

McNerney said that he'll be the only math Ph.D. in Congress - adding that he doesn't expect that to do him much good.

"He's like a brainiac," said Victor Uno, business manager of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 595 that's housed downstairs from McNerney's campaign office.

"In D.C. we don't need politicians, we need people with integrity, values," Uno said. "It's like 'Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.'"

Jerry McNerney: Inexperienced, Underfunded and Underestimated

From today's Contra Costa Times:

Pombo falls to unlikely defeat: McNerney refuses to bow to long odds

By Lisa Vorderbrueggen
CONTRA COSTA TIMES

Not too many months ago, political analysts said seven-term Rep. Richard Pombo could not lose in District 11, where he enjoyed the power of incumbency and solid party-registration advantage.

But Jerry McNerney, a little-known mathematician, toppled the Tracy Republican on Tuesday in the only major state upset.

Pombo now holds the record in California for flipping a seat to the opposing party while holding a 6 percentage point party registration advantage. It's also the first East Bay congressional ouster since 1996, when Ellen Tauscher, D-Alamo, beat Republican Bill Baker of Danville in a neighboring district.

"District 11 was so heavily gerrymandered that we told people they could scream and yell about Pombo all they want and it wouldn't make any difference," said Tony Quinn, a GOP consultant and co-author of the California Target Book. "But slowly, that seemed not to be the case."

Pombo crumbled under an avalanche of bad news that crushed his re-election hopes and left his campaign staff frustrated and divided over how to recover.

The national repudiation of President Bush's Iraq war policies and a drumbeat of congressional scandals soured the Tracy Republican's base and galvanized thousands of Bay Area Democrats to march against him.

National environmental groups spent in excess of $1.5 million and more than a year targeting his conservative policies.

And McNerney, a tenacious campaigner, refused to concede ground despite being inexperienced, underfunded and underestimated.

He leveraged the national mood, ran a grass-roots campaign modeled on that of presidential hopeful Howard Dean and transformed his 60,000 vote-loss to Pombo two years ago into a stunning victory that has captured national attention.

"Everywhere I go, people ask me about this race," said Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez. "Why did Pombo lose? Look, politics is about timing and opportunity, and this was the right time, and McNerney was smart to take advantage of the opportunity."

It's impossible, without exit polls, to know whether Republicans simply failed to show up at the polls or whether they voted for McNerney. And it's equally difficult to know whether grass-roots campaigning for McNerney generated the Democrat's win.

"Party registration is valuable, but you have to bear in mind that not all Republicans are the same and you don't know how independents will vote," said UC Berkeley political science professor Bruce Cain. "Pombo's personal issues and the national tide coupled with his strident environmental views lowered his incumbency advantage, and he lost."

Unlike 2004, when Pombo prevailed in each of the district's four counties, McNerney beat the incumbent everywhere except San Joaquin County, where Pombo lives.

But even there, McNerney came within 1 percentage point. Pombo received fewer votes Tuesday than in each of his past three general elections.

"As an old surfer, I would call it a wipe-out rather than a wave," said Rob Caughlan, the chief spokesman for McNerney's campaign. He was also the spokesman in the primary for former GOP Congressman Pete McCloskey, who ran against Pombo. "It was a combination of a lot of things."

The McNerney triumph bears some resemblance to that of Tauscher's historic win a decade ago.

Party leaders didn't think Tauscher could win, either, said Lisa Tucker, the congresswoman's campaign manager at the time.

"Independents in Ellen's district at that time, like Jerry's, were itching for a change, and it had been building for several cycles," Tucker said. "We've seen that happening in District 11, too."

The question now is whether McNerney, who has never held office, can hold onto his seat in 2008.

Turnout is higher in presidential election cycles, which could help a Republican opponent go after him. And McNerney is unlikely to have a half-dozen environmental groups spend millions on his re-election campaign.

McNerney initially was viewed by even members of his own party as too liberal for the Republican district; his voting record in the next two years will test that image.

Jerry McNerney: Winner

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mahatma Gandhi

From the Contra Costa Times:

In huge upset, voters oust Pombo
By Lisa Vorderbrueggen, Thomas Peele and Ryan Huff
CONTRA COSTA TIMES

U.S. Rep. Richard Pombo, once thought invincible in a safe GOP seat, has been turned out by voters in the Democratic storm that roared across the country Tuesday.

With all the precincts tallied, Democratic challenger Jerry McNerney of Pleasanton held a solid lead of 6 percentage points and more than 10,000 votes.

At 12:12 a.m. Wednesday, McNerney stood in front of 10 American flags and hundreds of cheering supporters at the San Ramon Golf Club to declare victory.

"We won this thing --it's ours," he said, constantly interrupted by cheers. "I'm going to fight to create new jobs. We're going to become the country we know we can be. I'm looking to you to help inspire me. It's about the people -- we won over the monied interests. It's time to party."

And just like that, the Phd mathematician who lost to Pombo two years ago by 60,000 votes, walked into the loud crowd like a rock star.

The race will go down in California history as a massive upset in a district where the incumbent held a 6-percentage point party registration advantage going into Tuesday's election. No other district in the state has flipped parties with this large a registration gap.

Around midnight, McNerney received a congratulatory call from former President Bill Clinton, who campaigned with the Pleasanton Democrat.

In the Central Valley in a tiny place aptly named Waterloo, Pombo's party had turned grim.

The congressman left with his family shortly after midnight and made no concession speech nor had he called McNerney as of 1:15 a.m.

Pombo aides said they would wait until all votes had been counted. Pombo is expected to hold a press conference sometime Wednesday.

But it was a bitter loss for the proud incumbent who had easily won re-election six times and rose to become the chairman of the powerful House Resources Committee, where his conservative policies made him a prime target of environmentalists.

McNerney grabbed a narrow lead early in the evening and watched it widen as precincts were tallied. He won in Contra Costa, Alameda and Santa Clara counties.

Remarkably, McNerney almost beat Pombo in San Joaquin County, the Republican's home and the place where his conservative base was expected to bolster losses from the more Democratic Bay Area portions of the district.

While Republicans fell all over the nation in a resounding repudiation of the Iraq War, President George Bush and a scandal-scarred Congress, Pombo also fell victim to his own conservative property rights record and aggressive opponents.

Environmentalists began targeting him more than a year ago and have spent more than $1.5 million on anti-Pombo electioneering.

The Sierra Club alone said it made 650,000 contacts with voters through phone calls, mailers and house visits, said its spokesman Eric Antebi.

"We were the X-factor in this race," he said. "Just look at when (First Lady) Laura Bush came to Pleasanton to sing Pombo's praises on the environment. That showed you where he was vulnerable."

More than 300 Sierra Club volunteers participated in get-out-the-vote efforts, Antebi said.

"We educated the voters about Pombo's poor environmental record and his ethical behavior," he said. "We made it possible for someone like Jerry McNerney to win without much name recognition or party support."

Pombo predicted that the presence of outside groups would backfire and galvanize his supporters. Thousands of Bay Area liberals carpooled and boarded buses to walk precincts in the district, all in the hopes of helping the Democrats seize control of Congress.

But despite a campaign warchest of nearly $4 million and another $1.5 million worth of electioneering by the national Republican Party, Pombo was unable to combat the combined effects of the national mood, his own record and determined opponents.

Pombo was unsuccessful in his attempt to paint McNerney as a liberal, flip-flopper who had exaggerated his energy resume and did not represent the conservative values of District 11.

It's unclear how many voters checked the "Anybody But Pombo" box.

But for his part, McNerney, a political neophyte who raised more than $2 million for his campaign, said voters were fed up with the Bush administration and Republicans.

"I hope I gave them a positive alternative," he said in an interview. "I knew we were going to win this from the beginning."

McNerney may have known it almost no one else expect him to pull off what many considered an impossible feat.

Even the national Democratic Party failed to dump much cash into the race. Privately, they viewed McNerney as too liberal to win or to hold onto the seat.

Richard Pombo: A Drowning Man

Robert Novak predicts that the Dems will pick up 19 seats in Congress and CA District 11 will be one of them.

California-11: Richard Pombo (R) shows all the signs of a drowning man. His is the most vulnerable district in California. The NRCC actually chartered a plane to fly volunteers to him on Saturday. This could be a sign that they are taking no chances, but it corresponds with other information that suggests real problems for Pombo. There has been no reliable polling in this race, but the fact that Pombo has not released any polls is a bad sign for him.

Pombo's opponent, engineer Jerry McNerney (D), has the backing of the left and scores of volunteers from the San Francisco Bay area. Left-wing groups softened up Pombo by spending the whole year making robo-calls against him. If they succeed in defeating him tomorrow, this strategy will surely be repeated in the future.

Pombo's saving grace may be the GOP absentee ballot effort here. The results may not be known until midday Wednesday or later. But Republicans are glum about this one. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Jerry McNerney: Momentum Firmly In McNerney's Court

In their final predictions Larry Sabato and david Wasserman of the U.VA. Center for Politics, Jerry Mcnerney is picked to unseat Pombo.

Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS

Larry J. Sabato and David Wasserman
U.Va. Center for Politics

NOTE:California (11)

Outlook: Toss-up

This race is part of the Crystal Ball's "Ferocious FIFTY" list of the 50 most competitive House races in the nation.

November 6, 2006 Update:

Jerry McNerney (D) will unseat Rep. Richard Pombo (R). Our sources on the ground tell us that momentum is firmly in McNerney's court and that late campaign help from Bill Clinton and scores of environmental groups is giving Resources Committee Chair Pombo a run for his money. Schwarzenegger's get-out-the-vote operation may yet save Pombo, but we will go out on a limb and tap McNerney to win in an upset.

Richard Pombo: The Face of What's Wrong With the Current Congress

Today in The Nation John Nichols points out the obvious:

Pombo is the face of what's wrong with the current Congress. A faux cowboy who tries to hide the fact that he has 'gone Washington' by wearing a new ten-gallon hat and shiny boots whenever he returns to an increasingly suburban district that is still home to many farmers and ranchers, Pombo is the House's most militant opponent of environmental protection. He chairs the House Resources Committee, and his campaign to gut the Endangered Species Act has allowed him to collect a great deal of money from corporate polluters, developers and others who would make billions if Congress would just let them kill off a few more rare species.

Richard Pombo: "A Disaster In Congress"

The San Jose Mercury News is back with a few choice words:

Richard Pombo has been a disaster in Congress. A knee-jerk opponent of even the most reasonable environmental protection, he actually wants to build a highway over the east hills into San Jose. Still, he has kept his seat in a conservative district, which is mainly in the Central Valley but edges as far over as Morgan Hill.

This time, Democrat Jerry McNerney -- with support from moderate Republicans -- has a real chance of unseating Pombo. Perhaps the allegations linking Pombo to unsavory lobbyists have caught up with him -- or maybe just common sense.

If you live in Pombo's district, don't miss this chance to boot him out and elect McNerney. The rest of the region will thank you.

Richard Pombo: The Bottom Just Fell Out

The Washington Post reports today that the Republicans will lose 20-35 seats in Congress and that for many including Richard Pombo, the bottom just fell out.

For House Republicans, the political terrain appears to be eroding beneath their feet, several analysts said. GOP seats that only a week ago seemed to be solidifying -- such as those held by Reps. Charles Bass in New Hampshire, Marilyn Musgrave in Colorado, Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania, John E. Sweeney in New York, Jim Ryun in Kansas, J.D. Hayworth in Arizona and Richard W. Pombo in California -- are turning very soft.

'The bottom just fell out,' said Amy Walter, a House analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Her publication predicted yesterday that Republicans will lose 20 to 35 seats. Rothenberg predicted a 34-to-40-seat Democratic gain. 'The House is gone,' he said.

Jerry McNerney: Dolores Huerta Campaigning in Brentwood

Click to enlarge

Dolores Huerta was in in Brentwood today campaigning for Jerry Mcnerney and against Richard Pombo in District 11.

Richard Pombo: Public Enemy No. 1

Here is the AP Report on Laura Bush's campaign stop for Richard Pombo. Maybe she thinks that George is also an environmentalist.

First lady defends Pombo's environmental record

By TERENCE CHEA, Associated Press Writer

(11-03) 12:58 PST Pleasanton, Calif. (AP) -- Republican Rep. Richard Pombo, who has faced of wave of attack ads from national conservation groups, is an "enthusiastic steward" of the environment and a friend of wildlife, first lady Laura Bush told GOP supporters Friday.

The first lady defended the environmental record of the seven-term congressman, seeking to give him a boost in his unexpectedly tight re-election campaign. Environmental groups have spent heavily to defeat Pombo, angered by what they say are anti-environmental policies he has championed as chairman of the House Resources Committee.

Appearing with Pombo at a campaign rally, Bush told supporters that the congressman has led efforts to promote alternative fuels and reform the Endangered Species Act. She said the act has created barriers to repairing the aging levees that crisscross Pombo's district, which stretches from the agricultural plains of the Central Valley to eastern San Francisco Bay area suburbs.

"U.S. Rep. Pombo is an enthusiastic steward of our country's natural resources," Bush said in Pleasanton, about 40 miles east of San Francisco. "Because of his leadership, wildlife, property and people will be protected from dangerous flooding."

Pombo, a rancher who has held the 11th Congressional District seat since 1992, faces a surprisingly competitive race against Democrat Jerry McNerney, a 53-year-old wind-energy engineer who holds a doctorate in mathematics.

"It's astounding that she would mention the environment and Richard Pombo in the same sentence because Richard Pombo has made his living beating up on environmentalists and environmental laws," said Rob Caughlan, a McNerney campaign spokesman. "That's why we have the support of every environmental group in the country."

The first lady's campaigning for Pombo four days before Tuesday's election underscored Republican worries that Democrats could take control of Congress.

On Thursday night, she campaigned for Rep. John Doolittle, another Republican incumbent at risk of losing his House seat, at a small Christian college in a Sacramento suburb.

Pombo, 45, has been environmentalists' public enemy No. 1 since becoming chairman of the Resources Committee in 2003.

A staunch advocate for private property rights, he pushed an overhaul of the Endangered Species Act through the House last year that gave new rights to landowners and limited habitat protections.

He also supported legislation that would have allowed the sale of public lands for mining and advocated for more domestic oil drilling, both offshore and in Alaska. Meanwhile Pombo has taken campaign money from oil, gas and timber companies that would benefit from his legislation.

Environmental groups such as the Sierra Club and Defenders of Wildlife have spent about $1 million on campaign ads to unseat Pombo since California's June primary.

On Friday, the first lady sought to shore up Pombo's environmental credentials. She cited his role in passing the National Energy Policy Act, which she said would help end the country's dependence on foreign oil by promoting alternative fuels such as biodiesel.

"U.S. Rep. Pombo is committed to safeguarding local ecosystems," she told Republican activists at a television-production studio owned by NFL commentator and former Oakland Raiders coach John Madden. "Richard promotes responsible conservation initiatives, programs that protect wildlife while also improving the lives of his constituents."

Environmentalists planned their own rally in Pleasanton on Saturday, when Hollywood stars Ben Affleck and Jennifer Garner were expected to campaign for McNerney.

___

Associated Press Writer Erica Werner contributed to this report from Washington, D.C.

Richard Pombo: The Bob Ney of California

Bob Ney resigned today from Congress. He already admitted he was guilty. Want to know an interesting connection with Richard Pombo? It seems that Abramoff associate and former Bob Ney chief of staff Neil Volz donated $1,000 to his campaign chest.

If you want clean energy and clean government, vote for Jerry McNerney!

Richard Pombo: Pomboesque In Its Greedy Beauty

Jesus' General offers this nugget as a comment on Lynn Cheney's books:
"a splendiferous expression of conservative principles in action. Indeed, it's almost Pomboesque in its greedy beauty."

Hilarious.

Richard Pombo and the Republican Message

At the SF Gate Clinton summarizes the Republican message:

"He said Republicans have run up the national debt, gotten American troops into a war with no clear exit strategy and have done little to help the middle class. Given that, he said, the Republicans are hoping to capitalize on people's fears to prevail on Election Day.

The GOP's message, according to Clinton, is this: 'If you vote for those Democrats, they're going to tax you into the poor house, and on the way to the poor house you'll meet a terrorist on every street corner. And when you try to run away from the terrorist, you will trip over an illegal immigrant.'

'Now as near as I can tell,' he continued, 'that's their campaign.'

Jerry McNerney, Bill Clinton and John Garamendi

The Lodi News describes the excitement as 1,000 supporters gathered in Stockton:

'They believe that the government should be run for and by the special interests. We think it ought to be run for ordinary Americans,' Clinton said. 'They believe that decisions should be made by ideological extremists in a way that divides the country; we believe decisions should be made by good, thinking progressives and conservatives that sit down and look at the evidence, hear each other's arguments before doing what's best for all Americans.'

Richard Pombo: "Most Likely Loss For the Republicans in California"

On Tuesday, October 31st on KQED's Forum with Michael Krazny, Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, senior scholar at the University of Southern California School of Policy, Planning and Development repeatedly described CA District 11 as "the most likely to change hands" and that the "most likely loss for the Republicans in California will be Pombo."

Jerry McNerney: Energy Expert

From the San Jose Mercury News:

Posted on Thu, Nov. 02, 2006

Clinton stumps for candidate
By Lisa Vorderbrueggen and Josh Richman
MediaNews

EX-PRESIDENT RALLIES SUPPORT FOR POMBO OPPONENT MCNERNEY

STOCKTON - A thousand people stood in the rain for two hours Wednesday night waiting to hear former President Bill Clinton speak to faithful Democrats and rally support for congressional candidate Jerry McNerney in his battle with Rep. Richard Pombo.

Clinton didn't disappoint.

The enthralled crowd hung on Clinton's every word, a 40-minute treatise on why America should elect Democrats on Nov. 7.

But the biggest thrill belonged to McNerney, who introduced the political icon of the left and found himself the subject of the charismatic speaker.

Three months ago, the Pleasanton two-time congressional candidate could barely get party leaders on the telephone and was expected to lose in the Republican district to Pombo, a seven-term incumbent from Stockton.

But in the past 10 days, top California Democrats have stumped for McNerney, and a recent poll shows the two men in a statistical dead heat.

Clinton, wearing a dark suit jacket, blue shirt and red tie topped by his trademark shock of white hair, said it was time to elect an energy expert to Congress who will help wean the nation off its oil addiction.

McNerney, who has a doctorate in mathematics, has been a wind energy consultant.

``The thing I like best about sending Jerry McNerney to Congress is that he has the expertise to help us build a clean energy economy,'' Clinton said. ``We ought to have someone in Congress with actual knowledge about energy.''

Richard Pombo: Making America Less Safe - Because of Iraq

Because of Iraq

Richard Pombo: Rubber Stamper

Tell Congress

Richard Pombo: PAC-man

The San Jose Mercury News reports on Richard Pombo's status as a leading Big Oil PAC-man:

Pombo has received $1.3 million in political action committee funds, one of the largest amounts among incumbents, with agricultural and energy companies heading the donors. McNerney received $182,504 in PAC donations.

Environmental groups have targeted Pombo for pushing for offshore oil drilling and his efforts to weaken the Endangered Species Act to help private landowners. Their literature calls Pombo an ``eco-thug.'' Working out of a storefront in Pleasanton, six staffers for the Defenders of the Wildlife have organized dozens of canvassers urging voters in Alameda and Contra Costa counties to oust him.

Eric Antebi, an organizer with the Sierra Club in San Francisco, estimated that environmental groups will spend at least $1.5 million to rally voters against Pombo.

Pombo, whose campaign signs proudly label him ``Rancher, Congressman,'' says he is representing the ranchers and farmers in California who face over-regulation. More than half the district's voters are in San Joaquin County, one of the nation's richest agricultural areas. Pombo calls his environmental opponents ``radicals.''

``They've made this a national thing, and they're coming after me,'' Pombo said at a recent appearance. ``I'm a chairman of a major committee now, and I'm a bigger target.''

But Pombo is in trouble for other reasons as well. While much of the district is still rural, more retirees and suburbanites have moved in -- even to Tracy, Pombo's home.

Real estate office worker Alice English said she usually voted Democratic but the big change this year was her husband, a Republican, would not vote for Pombo ``because of all the negative ads they're putting out.''

``We used to cancel each other's votes,'' she joked. ``Not this year.''

Bill Evans, 70, a retired Air Force bomber pilot who moved to Pleasanton four years ago, opposes the Iraq war and has helped organize veterans for McNerney, whom he calls ``a straightforward man of integrity.''

Maybe most telling was the reaction of Debbie Bennett, a Republican retiree from Danville. She voted for Bush twice but said she is ``very disappointed in the war,'' and might sit out this election.