Obama! - Pattern Recognition in Newpapers

Editor & Publisher has a list of the newspapers that have endorsed Barack Obama or John McCain. In 2004 John Kerry had a small edge over George Bush. But in 2008, Obama has the endorsements of 240 papers compared to 114 for John McCain. The difference in circulation is even larger - 21 million for Obama and 7 million for McCain.

In 2004, E&P's Greg Mitchell correctly forecast the winner in 14 of 15 key states simply by looking at the endorsements in those states. So what is he forecasting for tomorrow?

Obama Will Win Easily Tomorrow -- At Least Based on Newspaper Backing in Key Swing States!

By Greg Mitchell

Published: November 03, 2008 12:20

NEW YORK Everyone's making predictions on Tuesday's election with, as usual, the key "swing" or "battleground" or "tossup" states getting the most attention. Experts, or just plain gasbags, can juggle all sorts of information, from reports on the ground to one of seemingly 500 polls. But here at E&P, we do it a little differently on election eve: We predict the winner in key states purely on the basis on newspaper endorsements in that state.

Before you laugh too hard, consider this: In 2004, I did the same thing in this space -- and picked 14 of the 15 tight races correctly. Only missed on Florida (still waiting for that recount).

So, with perhaps undue confidence, allow me to take the plunge once again. We have been tallying endorsements here, with much national attention, for the past weeks, with an Obama landslide in that measure nationally. But what about in the specific states?

Using this strict measure, I predict Obama will take 11 out of 13 battlegrounds, losing in West Virginia and in Virginia (though I expect he will end up winning there).

Here is a rundown, in no particular order. Again, my picks are based purely on newspaper endorsements -- both the number and the size/influence of the papers in each candidate's column.
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PENNSYLVANIA
Forget McCain "narrowing the gap." He lost both big Philly dailies and split in Pittsburgh--gaining the lesser paper there. Obama has taken the smaller dailies by 2-1 with the papers in York, Easton and Erie, among others, switching from Bush. Winner: OBAMA

OHIO
In 2004, Bush won because he nailed Columbus -- and Cleveland sat it out. This year, Columbus remains in the GOP column but the Plain Dealer went for Obama. The Cincy paper again went Republican. But once again, Obama takes the smaller papers 2-1, with about half dozen switching over from Bush. The Akron, Toledo, Dayton, Canton and Youngstown papers give this state to OBAMA.

WEST VIRGINIA
Papers in our soon-to-be updated list fully back McCAIN.

NORTH CAROLINA
We have to give Obama an upset here since he has in the bag all of the leading papers. A loss here would be embarrassing for...me. OBAMA.

COLORADO
We correctly gave this to Bush in 2004 largely because he won the Denver papers. This time around, the Post backed Obama and the Rocky managed to endorse no one. Obama does well elsewhere here, too, with some Bush flip-floppers. OBAMA.

FLORIDA
Will I blow this one again? Well, I will stick my neck out and give it to Obama, since, like Kerry in 2004, he dominates the editorial picks. But he only picked up one Bush paper that we know of (Naples) while losing one Kerry backer (Bradenton). Still, I have to be faithful to my formula and pick OBAMA.

INDIANA
With the Indy Star begging off the GOP candidate and remaining neutral, the state leans OBAMA.

IOWA
Easy OBAMA win.

MISSOURI
I have to give this to OBAMA, too, as he held the likely papers and picked up a Bush switcher in Joplin.

NEVADA
The candidates split the two Vegas papers but Obama got Reno, so give this to him, too.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Pretty much a toss up, but Obama leads by 5 dailies to 3 in our most recent count, so he can have that one, too.

NEW MEXICO
Ditto.

VIRGINIA
Well, I am probably going to take it on the chin here. The endorsements, big and small, definitely favor McCAIN.

Endorsement Battle: 6,299,363 to 1,502,163

Editor & Publisher is keeping track of newspaper endorsement in the Presidential race. Today was another big day for Barack Obama who picked up both the LA Times and the Chicago Tribune.

NEW YORK The Obama-Biden ticket maintains its strong lead in the race for newspaper endorsements, picking up 12 more papers in the past day, including the giant Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune on Friday afternoon (see separate story). This brings his lead over McCain-Palin by this measure to over 3-1 so far, at 51-16, including most of the major papers that have decided so far. In contrast, John Kerry barely edged George W. Bush in endorsements in 2004, by about 220 to 205.

The readership of the 51 newspapers backing Obama now stands at 6,299,363 daily circulation. He gained two biggies yesterday in The Washington Post and San Francisco Chronicle and today picked up the Modesto Bee in addition to the L.A. Times, plus La Prenza and La Opinion.

The Columbian in Washington was an unexpected win for Obama, since the newspaper endorsed President Bush in the 2004 election. Obama has now picked up at least seven "flip flops" of this type.

The Mountain Valley News in Colorado adds to McCain’s endorsement list, bringing his total to 16 newspapers. The daily circulation of his newspapers now stands at 1,502,163.

Who Do You Want At The Wheel?

Clay Bennett

John McCain - The Incredible Shrinking Man

On a day that saw 17 newspapers endorse Barack Obama for President (just two for McCain), the St. Louis Post Dispatch was pretty damn blunt!

Over the past nine months, Mr. Obama, the junior senator from Illinois, has emerged as the only truly transformative candidate in the race. In the crucible that is a presidential campaign, his intellect, his temperament and equanimity under pressure consistently have been impressive. He has surrounded himself with smart, capable advisers who have helped him refine thorough, nuanced policy positions.

In a word, Mr. Obama has been presidential.

Meanwhile, Mr. McCain, the senior senator from Arizona, became the incredible shrinking man. He shrank from his principled stands in favor of a humane immigration policy. He shrank from his universal condemnation of torture and his condemnation of the politics of smear.

He even shrank from his own campaign slogan, “Country First,” by selecting the least qualified running mate since the Swedenborgian shipbuilder Arthur Sewall ran as William Jennings Bryan’s No. 2 in 1896.

"Be Logical, Captain"

Drew Friedman

The Bush/McCain Record

Not much to add.

"I'm John McCain and I Approved this Mess"

Clay Bennett

George W. Bush - Stealing Second

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland brought down the house at the Democratic National Convention Tuesday night with a crack about President Bush -- and John McCain -- that harked back to one of the sharpest verbal stones ever thrown at Bush's father.

"You know, it was once said of the first George Bush that he was born on third base and thought he'd hit a triple," Strickland said. "Well, with the 22 million new jobs and the budget surplus Bill Clinton left behind, George W. Bush came into office on third base, and then he stole second."

As the crowd roar, Strickland added, "And John McCain cheered him every step of the way."

The first version of the line was delivered with a wry smile at the 1988 Democratic convention in Atlanta by the first President Bush's fellow Texan Ann Richards, then the state's treasurer and later its governor.

From the Boston Globe.

History, Hurricanes and Birthdays

Newseum

Last night, Barack Obama made history in Denver. He accepted the nomination of the Democratic Party for President of the United States. Today's front page of The Times-Picayune as featured at the Newseum is shown above - both celebrating Obama's nomination and warning of the approach of Hurricane Gustav.

National Hurricane Center

Today is also John McCain's 72nd birthday. Here is a photo of him celebrating three years ago with George Bush - while New Orleans was drowning.

Firedoglake

Click To Enlarge

Obamacans and Foreign Policy

In tomorrow's Financial Times you can read why some prominent Republicans are endorsing Barack Obama.

Foreign policy lures 'Obamacans'

By Edward Luce in Washington

Published: August 13 2008 03:00 | Last updated: August 13 2008 03:00

Barack Obama yesterday netted the endorsement of three prominent Republicans, including Jim Leach and Lincoln Chafee, both of whom lost their congressional seats to Democratic opponents in the 2006 mid-term elections.

The announcement boosts the ranks of so-called "Obamacans" and is likely to fuel speculation about the possibility of bigger names - such as Colin Powell, former secretary of state, and Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator for Nebraska - also endorsing the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Describing Mr Obama's call for change as "more renewal than departure" and thus in line with traditional conservative principles, Mr Leach said: "This is simply not a time for politics as usual . . . I have no doubt that a lot of Republicans will be attracted to Obama in spite of the flaws in this year's primary process."

The two Republicans, along with Rita Hauser, a former White House intelligence adviser, stressed foreign policy as their principal motivation for endorsing Mr Obama. Ms Hauser described as "bellicose" the response of John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, to Russia's conflict with Georgia.

Most "Obamacans" come from the so-called realist wing of the Republican party which has fallen into deep disenchantment with the -foreign policy of George W. Bush, the president.

Some have stressed their hope that Mr Obama would take a more aggressive approach to solving the Israeli-Palestinian crisis even though the Democrat has taken a strongly pro-Israel line. All said they supported Mr Obama's pledge to talk to US adversaries, including Iran.

"There is a deepening split between the traditional Nixonian realist wing of the Republican party and the neo-conservatives that has become more pronounced with John McCain's hardline anti-Russia rhetoric," said Steve Clemons at the New America Foundation.

"I have good reason to believe that there will be other Republicans, such as James Baker [the former secretary of state], who may withhold endorsement from McCain rather than endorse Obama directly."

Electoral analysts say there is unlikely to be a large switch of Republican voters, although Mr Obama's endorsement by prominent Republicans could help sway independents into the Democratic column or encourage others to stay at home.

Mr McCain is working hard to win over hawkish Democrats to his camp, following his endorsement by Joe Lieberman, the former vice-presidential candidate, this year.

There is a possibility that both Mr McCain and Mr Obama could choose running mates from opposition ranks in a bid for centrist voters. Mr Hagel is thought to be an outside choice for Mr Obama's ticket and Mr Lieberman is on Mr McCain's shortlist. Mr Hagel is leaving the Senate in January.

John McCain - Mr. Excitement!

Hat tip to Devilstower.

Ready To Lead?

Clay Bennet

Fiscal Conservative?

Steve Greenberg

John, I Am Your Father

Tom Toles

The Right Stuff?

Add your own caption!

Click to enlarge

Hat tip to Ben Smith at Politico.

Obama Can - Clinton Can't

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Today, Rasmussen Reports that in Colorado, McCain loses to Obama but beats Hillary. The simple message is that today in Colorado Obama Can Win - Clinton Can't Win.

Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Colorado’s Electoral College votes have ended up in the Republican column for the past three Presidential election, but it has always been competitive. Four years ago, President George W. Bush won the state by less than five percentage points over Senator John Kerry.

It’s not clear which party will claim Colorado and its nine Electoral Votes in 2008.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows that Barack Obama (D) currently holds a seven-point advantage over John McCain (R), 46% to 39%. However, if the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, McCain will begin the race with a fourteen point advantage, 49% to 35%. National polling, updated daily, currently shows the same general trend with Obama currently performing better than Clinton in match-ups with McCain.

Sixty percent (60%) of Colorado voters currently have a favorable opinion of Obama while just 36% hold an unfavorable view.

McCain earns favorable reviews from 55% and less flattering assessments from 42%

Clinton is viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 54%.

If this trend holds up, Hillary Clinton will never have a Day 1 on which to be ready.